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With the second in command in the Arias Government stepping down last week after he was exposed for sending an internal memo to “el jefe” Oscar Arias, about how they (the administration) needed to scare the population into voting YES I have to say that if Arias had any honour or sense he would also step down. The man should get out while he can for otherwise his legacy will be that of the man who sold the country down the river in a trade deal that cost CR it’s natural resources and a whole lot more.
In an interview this week Arias asked the people to “trust” him like they did in the 80’s. But in what way did they have to trust him back then? Certainly he wasn’t handing the country’s economy over to the U.S Government, he was in fact posturing around the world stage advising others on how to resolve their internal conflicts and then basking in the adoration for his Nobel Peace Prize. Whilst he put Costa Rica on the map my understanding is that this was about the extent of what he did.
Tony Blair asked the British public to “trust” him too as he took them into Iraq. The poor fool thought he could see the future and, concerned with his legacy he thought that he too, like Winston Churchill before him, would go down in history as the man that saved Britain from tyranny. Meantime in the U.S. Hilary is trying to fool the voters that she will get them out of Iraq, this of course will not happen. At least certainly not in the manner she is suggesting.
Of course with the TLC there is no withdrawal. There can be no climb down unless of course Arias is able to change the Constitution in the same manner he did to get elected for a second term. (For those who don’t know, only one term was allowed until he got his eraser out and rewrote the laws of the land). A friend of mine from Ireland used to jest in the 1980’s that the Constitution of this country was written in pencil…at the time it was funny, but now it no longer a joke.
And so the public cast their vote in a poll, the outcome of which has already been decided by the Arias Government and George Bush and Partners. The fat cats at the top and their friends will do well from this deal just like in all other so called free trade deals the world over.
For any Tico’s that might happen to read this I say, if you were asked to sign a 5,000 page agreement in your personal life without having read it, would you do it?
RIP Costa Rica.
For he record I do agree that the big institutions should be broken up and open to competition; the incredibly overpriced phone system that was actually considerably better in the 80’s for one and the State insurance company too. On this much I agree with Don Oscar and if by some miracle the No vote wins he has said that he will push these two through anyway. God Bless him.
Edited on Sep 30, 2007 12:15
Edited on Sep 30, 2007 12:55
Simon, While I agree in principle with what you have said in that the Ticos will have a rough time voting on a 5,000 page document, which the most learned of them could not decipher, you have to look at it in a world context. I originally was of the opinion that ratification of the agreement was bad for Costa Rica. After some intelligent postings on this site, and a real reflection on what Costa Rica has to look forward to in the future, I have come to the opinion they have to secure their own future in the international trade arena.
If they vote “no,” they can possibly renegotiate a more understandable and beneficial version. If they vote “si,” they will be trading partners with what is still the largest consumer driven economy in the world. The position they are in is a tough one, I’ll agree. The order of trade is not what it was 20 years ago. Costa Rica in some form or another has to be involved for the future of its economy. Every country is negotiating trade deals, and for them to be left out may mean even harder times for the Ticos.
No one wants to see Costa Rica raped of its resources, talents or culture. The country we all seem to love has to be allowed to be considered grown up enough to make an intelligent decision, without interference from outsiders, expats, or anyone who is not a native Costa Rican. They are an intelligent, hardworking and independent people. Whatever they decide to do, it will be right for them. If a mistake gets made they will have to fix it on their own. Laws can be changed, treaties can be broken.
The fat cats will always run the show around this globe. Positions of power give certain people the ability to change the course of the world, and of lives. In the meantime, we have an obligation to make sure our own house is in order first.
Let us give Costa Rica the courtesy, and respect it deserves, to chose their own path, and their own destiny.You say that CR should secure their future on the international trade arena and here I couldn’t agree more. Where I suspect that we fall out on this matter is your understanding on the world arena as an American and mine as a European.
Since most manufactured goods exported by the U.S. are now imported from China then why not cut out the middleman?
Demand for agricultural products is growing rapidly all around the globe and this country no longer needs the U.S or their feeble dollar. The U.S. is an empire that has now passed its peak; its obligations are weighing it down and its importance as a world power is already beginning to diminish. Whilst this may be a slow process the trend has already started and will continue until the dollar becomes another worthless fiat currency.
Yes, the U.S is still the largest consumer driven economy in the world however its consumers are now tapped out. They can no longer use their house as an ATM and the ARM’s are resetting; this will be the final blow that collapses the house of cards.
I cannot imagine one intelligent argument that could be made to support this offensive legal document and I suspect when the people of this country realize what they have signed up for they will want someone’s blood. Pity the person that is around to face the music when that happens.
Regarding your point that the U.S. should get its own house in order first I couldn’t agree more but how exactly do you suggest they do this?
Regarding your last point I don’t really get it; you sound like a politician. If it affects my life I’m going to have an opinion; unfortunately the law prevents us from being active in the debate locally so your point is somewhat mute.
Viva Costa Rica.
I just read a post from someone on another CR board about this very topic and the question they posed was “Do you think the Nicaraguans are happier now with their post-TLC $50 a month phone bill which is what is going to happen to Costa Rica if TLC passes?” Quite frankly, I cringe at the thought of the big telecoms moving in to CR and jacking up the prices, while they rape the corportions (i.e. Joe Naccio of Qwest, and the others who are now in prison for similar offenses). Why is competition so great if the average person won’t be able to afford a cell phone? I think we’ve all been brainwashed to believe that this is a good thing, when in fact it probably won’t be. I am so sick of paying for all those phone taxes in the States that I refuse to make a long distance call on my phone carrier (Qwest) and instead use a calling card for one of the cheapie services. Basic service costs $32 a month, and $20 of that is taxes. How stupid is THAT??? And if it’s true what Simon said about that memo and scaring people to vote for TLC, then yes, the whole lot of them should resign, but these tactics of intimidation based on lies are nothing new.
Maravilla – in this instance I think it likely that telecom service and price will improve. It worked for the UK in the 80’s and I see no reason why it wont work here. I know nothing of the Nicaragua stituation and find it odd that tarriffs went up. Is this really accurate? Did they open the market or just allow in a new operator?
I am concerned about probable increases in prices in telecommunications. “Deregulation” in the US certainly did not make things much cheaper and there’s simply no way that telecoms will be cheaper here.
The majority of Costa Ricans are poor and I am concerned about highly probable increases prices in various medications.
I am very concerned about Costa Rica’s small farmers and particularly concerned about the many cooperatives that employ so many people in Costa Rica.
We all need to cooperate more and compete less.
The USA clearly has an agricultural policy that demands that the rest of the world stop using and producing their own seeds and only buy the terminator seeds from Monsanto et al. This is not just a ‘profitable’ tactic for them, this is another military strategy to control the world’s food supply.
To use Scott’s term the American form of “capitalism on steroids” is obviously unsustainable and this will become more clear each year until finally – when it’s far too damned late to do anything about it – people will wake up and realize that: “Oh! My God! My child has chronic asthma attacks because we’ve polluted the air so badly, our fertility rates will continue to fall because our water supply is totally polluted and my relatives in Europe are telling me that the cancer rates there have increased by 1,500% recently because of the 1,000+ tons of radioactive depleted uranium weapons of mass destruction (which only has a life-span of 4.5 billion years) the USA has dropped in Kosovo and Iraq…
God only knows what will happen if GWB and his team of truly crazy m************ attack Iran…
I am concerned that if living costs rise dramatically for the average Tico then our quality of life will suffer because crime will increase.
We might also bear in mind that the American consumer is getting close to the point where all of his credit cards are completely and totally tapped out… So what are they gong to buy? What will change with TLC? Does anyone really know the answer? Will they all of a sudden stop buying what they have been buying before?
AOL founder Steve Case – who has committed to investing $800+million here says he’ll stick around whether CAFTA passes or not… So will many others.
Most Americans and Europeans come here to enjoy a simpler life, why would we want our lives to become more like America’s?
If Costa Rica does indeed become just like America, I for one will not be staying here and finally, NOBODY I know understands this agreement – NOBODY!
Why would anyone want to ‘agree’ to something that they don’t fully understand.
Yes, it’s true about costs increasing in Nicaragua, but I don’t know how that happened or who did the increases, but of course that ISN’T good for the Nicas. And it won’t be good for the Ticos, hell, it won’t be good for ME! And if cell phone service hits $50, I’d do without, just out of principle. I’m with Bradbard on this one. Nothing good will come of TLC for Ticos or for us expats. I personally don’t want to eat GMO Monsanto food. Medications will skyrocket, just like they have in the US. Big Pharma doesn’t care about the little guy, or how many people they kill. They are interested in profits wherever they can get it. When CR becomes a mirror image of the US, I’m heading farther South. Look what happened in Mexico after NAFTA. The little farmer was wiped out. Monsanto introduced crops that cause serility and spontaneous abortion. You didn’t think they had our welfare in mind, did you? This is about global control of the food markets by those evildoers ADM, Monsanto, etc. I keep thinking of the grafitti I saw on a wall in San Ramon that said “Arias es la puta de GWB!” That pretty much sums it up for me.
Simon, Regarding my last point in my post, I certainly did not want to sound like a politician. My opinion was to let Costa Rica decide without outside influences. You have every right to voice your concerns about something that will affect you. I was making reference to politicians and people from the outside who have openly tried to influence CR by going there to speak to one side or the other on the issue.
I am not all that thrilled with this treaty from the USA’s standpoint either. The fact that many of our jobs have gone overseas with all our other trade agreements is a concern for most of us here. I don’t think there are any big winners in all this.
Regarding the US dollar and the economy; spending here is still up, the overall sense of wealth is still intact, if you can believe it? The impact of the lousy housing market still has not taken effect. For now it is just business as usual. The falling of the dollar was supposed to increase exports. So far this has not happened. A friend of mine was in Europe last month and heard they were contemplating lowering the Euro. I don’t know if this is accurate, but it would make sense if their export and tourism sectors decline.
It is good to hear a European perspective on the issue, because that is one thing we never hear in the US. Sometimes I think we operate in a vacumn, not seeing or hearing what the rest of the world has to say, or how it views us.
As far as the US getting its house in order, that is a question that has the most difficult of answers. We are in a world economy and still act as if we are the one running it. We are involved in too many places and in too much debt. We have lost many manufacturing jobs and capabilities. Our dollar, and image, has been going down the drain for quite a while. We will most likely experience some hard times in the coming years. We need to have a more responsive government looking out for the needs and welfare of our own people. We need to defend ourselves, but not interfere with the rest of the world. These are challenges that will be need to be addressed, and the citizens of this country will have to make choices at the ballot box next November. We don’t seem to have many good choices. I would like to see new ideas brought into the mix, so discussion of important issues can cause us to think a little more. We may have a tough road ahead. We have been there before, and I hope we can overcome the problems we face.
Costa Rica will now have its own share of challenges as it moves forward. The numerous treaties, trade agreements, and international policy changes Costa Rica has made in the past few years is a bold move to enter the big economy of the world.
I wish them the best, and hope for them a bright and prosperous future.Alfred, et al, you know full well who will benefit from CAFTA. It was crafted by the same crowd in and around the Bush Administration that gave the citizens of the U.S. the Bush tax reduction — the already obscenely advantaged. And they, the authors of CAFTA, can be relied upon to have crafted another deal that will garner them advantages grossly disproportionate to anything they deserve.
The only remaining question is which will be the lesser of the two evils: to ratify CAFTA and take their leftovers or to reject it and be left out altogether.
I just don’t know . . .
I have to say I agree with David on this, yet again voters are faced with the lesser of two evils. Based on a lot of Tico opinions I have been reading in the papers a lot of them feel the same way. Regarding the imminent collapse of the US you all may be jumping the gun a bit. First of all only about 8% of all mortgages fall into the sub-prime fiasco and I believe we have seen the worst of it. I’m not sure where you live Brad but the majority of US consumers are not tapped out on there credit cards, lets not get carried away here. I am a pretty ordinary guy and have friends and family all over the country and the majority of them are not tapped out on second mortgages or credit cards. Overall most are still making a very good living and we are enjoying very low unemployment, I am not a fortune teller so am just going by the numbers today. Also regarding real estate we have had such a run up in prices over the last ten years that even a 20% correction is sustainable for most and anyone who bought 5 or 10 years ago still has a lot of equity and lets not forget the tens of millions who have owned there homes for ten years or more. A decline in home prices effects people that have to sell there home, and the vast majority of folks need a place to live and are not trading homes like stocks. Also before the boomer exodus comes up most that I know are staying in there current paid off home after retirement or they will sell it it at what the market will bear. So instead of walking away with $300k they may have to settle for $200k, the vast, vast majority of Americans is not moving to Mexico or Costa Rica, unfortunately most don’t know where it is! LOL.. From 1970-1981 we had high interest rates and a very slow housing market as well as a very stagnant stock market but as time moves on we cycle through these events and make do with what we have; the house of cards does not just collapse, nothing is that black and white. And please no comparisons to Rome!! I remember when gold got sky high in the 70’s and mortgage rates were about 16% for a 30 year fixed…yes I agree we may be in for some tough times but I have heard all the dooms day predictions before and find it all a bit morbid this fascination some have with almost relishing the collapse of the US; I remember when it was Japan even Russia.
Lotus – Your optimism is inspiring; you almost sound like Larry Kudlow!
If I had written in this forum two years ago that the housing market was due for the worst correction ever I would have been ridiculed (nothing new there). Had I added that a section of the mortgage market would collapse and cause international banks to collapse I would have been called a doom monger.
Using the popular media as a source of information we will of course be led astray; I don’t recall Jim Cramer warning his viewers about sub prime or indeed anyone on CNBC or any other U.S channel for that matter. Yet that this problem existed was known to many and kept quiet until it blew up. Do you not think it possible there could be more bad news out there?
The U.S. will not collapse but it may fall into a deep recession or even depression. This housing problem is far from overand may continue until we reach a forty percent decline.
I’m glad you brought up Japan; it really is a good case in point. Try as they may they were unable to lift their economy for 16 years even with zero interest rates. Stocks and real estate are still down close the where they fell in the early nineties. The Japanse are good at saving which is probably the only thing that prevented the situation from being more devasting. The U.S. on the other hand likes to spend and consumers have far less to fall back on.
On a different subject it would be interesting to hear from someone who fully supports CAFTA/TLC…so far it seems that everyone agrees.
Edited on Oct 01, 2007 11:19
I don’t watch TV financial shows or much TV at all and read no news papers..although I did recently start getting a free subscription to the economist. I have also been in real estate here in NYC since 1989 so have seen some ups and downs. I agree the real estate market outside of Manhattan is in a mild recession and I was advising clients to that regard for about 4 years, I was about 2 years early(although it never happened here in Manhattan). In my short life time I have seen financial institutions “collapse” before, nothing new here as the vast majority survive. There will and always will be “more bad news out there” as well as good news…so? Regarding the Japanese if they invested some of the trillions sitting in zero interest savings accounts that may have helped there economy. I feel neither optimistic nor pessimistic I am just observing the “now” and have little interest in speculating about the future(as all sane people can agree it does not exist). I do think there are often Bull markets within secular bear markets and vice/versa and probably like many bears I would guess you have been predicting this “collapse” for 10 years? Wait long enough and almost anything will come true….And dude Cramer?
David, Precisely! The lesser of the two evils is what this is all about. No one knows which will be worse. We all have feelings on this and some are quite strong. As I once said, the duly elected government of Costa Rica abdicated their responsibility by calling for a referendum to have its citizens decide the matter. If it all goes well, they will take the credit anyway. If it blows up in their faces, they will blame the voters for making a bad choice. Either way the politicos are off the hook on this one.
I changed my opinion to a more positive one on the “yes” vote after many postings on this subject a short while ago. I still have reservations, but I would rather the Ticos have the opportunity to try, if they choose, to enter an agreement with the US.
As far as Bush and company being the beneficiary of any agreement…It doesn’t matter whose president! They all get contributions from businesses engaged in international trade. The democrats and republicans are equally sharing in any spoils to be made. You can tar the whole group with the same brush. The little guy is always the last to get the cheese.
Lotus, I know you listen to Bob Brinker. Did you hear him this past Saturday? I had just turned him on in the car, and he was saying the corporate executives that gave GM employees the benefit packages regarding healthcare should have been fired. He implied they rolled over for the union. I promptly turned him off. This week GM employees are going to vote on a new contract, closing more plants and consolidating others. GM will put money in a healthcare trust fund held by the union. What happens when the money either runs out, or the union loses it? I think we all know the answer. I understand Brinker’s position as an investment advisor, but not as a human being. I can’t understand the heartless business of profits, at the cost of workers who have served a company for years and may not get the healthcare they were promised while they were under previous contracts. Then to add insult to injury, the company execs get perks and parachutes to keep them well into their retirement years. Sorry for going off topic, but I was a little miffed.
I think Simon was pretty much on target. Most of us have reservations about this. And David is right about the deal being crafted for some and not all. Lotus, you also bring up excellent points about the US economy. It always manages to recover. Everyone else has also brought up good thoughts on CAFTA/TLC. We’ll just have to wait another six days or so and see how it turns out.
Lotus, One question. Have you noticed, since the devaluing of the US dollar, more European buyers looking at New York real estate, as we saw during the Japanese’s euphoria days of buying Rockefeller center?
All the more reason why there shouldn’t be any health care packages. Give the workers the money and let them take care of it themselves; if they dont get coverage that’s their own problem. Why do people want others taking care of them anyway?
GM employees will not have a job at all soon if things continue the way they are. How can they compete with the Chinese or other Asian manufactures when they have years of commitments around their neck; the answer is they cannot.
Rather than demanding more from a sinking ship they should focus on getting the hell out and doing something else. Is that harsh?
What worries me most about this CAFTA thing is what it may do to Costa Rican civility. Whether CAFTA passes or fails, if Costa Rica’s economy turns downward that downturn will be blamed on the outcome of the referendum. Since the sentiment for and against CAFTA is so closely split, it seems that one segment of society is bound to be pitted against the other in a hopeless blame game. That’s hardly the foundation for much social or economic progress.
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