Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Scott, do believe the reason for the estimates almost always being more optimistic than warrants is due to false indicators or stupid economists..or perhaps are they due more to a propagandistic goal by politicians?
I suspect if people knew what to expect, there could very well be a great panic which would exacerbate the situation.
Edited on Feb 09, 2009 08:09
Like you, I LUCKILY moved my stocks to cash in the first half of last year. I am still not in as good a shape as I was but am holding my own(and keeping the CR property as a very last resort).
I have been trying not to sound like an alarmist but as I am telling people what I believe will probably come to pass (in general terms), I am being called “chicken little”. I don’t understand how people can be so blind as to not see this HUGE catastrophe on the way. I listened to Obama’s speach last night and he couldn’t keep the anxiety out of his tenor. When the president is frightened, and he is notably so, it should be obvious tyo everyone that there is something very bad afoot.
Even for those of us that believe in the coming catastrophe,, it seems most of us are paralyzed into inaction. Like death, extreme deprivation is a hard reality to accept and nobody I know has taken the drastic steps in their personal lives to mitigate this.
I am unwilling to pull my son out of high school, move to costa rica, get to work on putting in a healthy good sized vegrtable garden and doing the many other things necessary right now. We are like deer frozen in the headlights of an oncoming Mack truck.How out of touch with reality, grb, is a public which continues to follow a really bad ideology for decade after decade until they are already over the cliff and falling?
Politicians are scrambling but there isn’t much they cando now.
Canned tuna is a great bartering tool.
It seems funny to observe so much focus and effort on financial markets when we all may be looking at Armageddon coming down the pike. Currency fluctuations? Gold? I wish I knew the avergae 401K or retirement account balance for average Americans. Maybe they should all be looking into survival gardens. We have a year round growing season in Costa Rica.
There should be better reasons to consider moving to Costa Rica than just financial. Many people are simply ill equiped to take on life in a foreign culture. I have seen too many Cuban refugees in Miami who left Cuba for economic reasons and regretted their move. I wish there were reliable statistics on how many expats return to the States after living in Costa Rica for a year or two.
It seems sensible to me that in order to make a life in a new culture, one would require a strong interest in that culture and the willingness and ability to, at the very least, learn the language. So many expats speak little or no Spanish in Costa Rica.
The last thing I would want to see is a horde of impoverished American refugees flocking to Costa Rica with nothing more than a social security check and a lot of erroneous ideas and silly expectations about what life is like in Central America. A short visit or two may not be enough to understand what it means to live away from everything to which one has grown accustomed. And not having a good deal of money might make the transition even more difficult.
Ha! Who says I do maintain sanity?
Seriously, since, as a trader, my income doesn’t depend on the market only going up, I am immune to recession and even a depression as long as it is not Armageddon. In fact, volatility is good for business.Listening to the financial news does tilt one’s perspective as to future prospects for the economy in general but my days of empathy for others who have lived in this system have passed. Americans brought this upon themselves and they will now be as bankrupt as the ideology that they blindly followed for decades.
I DO have empathy for the Costa Ricans, though. If you read the most recent article on this site, you may get a taste of what I see coming down the pike. It won’t just be the U.S. that suffers. This tiny little country will, of course, be subjected to some brutal consequecnes as well. While tourism will be one victim of the crisis, I would be more worried about core economic factors such as agriculture exports.
Edited on Feb 04, 2009 04:58
Edited on Feb 04, 2009 05:02
Passport application levels are just one of many other possible predictive indicators of future activity in international travel. Whatever the main reasons are for the decline, it is still a decline and represents a direction change.
here is a link
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-passports3-2009feb03,0,4811746.storywhat do you want to bet this graph follows CR tourism stats pretty closely?
http://travel.state.gov/passport/services/stats/stats_890.htmlEdited on Feb 03, 2009 13:21
I have no feelings one way or the other regarding costa rican tourism. It is pretty obvious that all spending everywhere is down. I just reported what I heard on MSNBC financial news this morning regarding the passport applications being down 25%. According to that scource, this data was supplied by the State Department.
There may well be multiple reasons for this decline but the decline is quite significant for a one year period. Pent up demand having been satisfied last year may account for SOME of the decline, but the biggest part has to be economic in origin.I have no idea how much this will affect tourism in CR but the probability is that it is not good.
In times of crisis, people look for leaders and signs and will grasp at anything that supports a point of view or a hope that they may hold. We all do it. It may not be scientific, but it is definitely human. Pardon me if I sound pessimistic most of the time but I am plugged in to financial news all friggin day long as a trader and I am sure this is having a deleterious effect on my outlook.
The largest amount of ex pats per capita in CR< perhaps…but the certainly not THE largest amount of expats anywhere. Mexico must have always had more expats than CR.
You are correct about night temperatures in South Florida during the summer months. They are almost as unbearable as the day. Winters are very nice, though, which Costa Rica sea level climates will NOT have.
Perhaps it is also the crowding in S. Florida that makes the heat and humidity even more unbearable for me. When I visited the Central Pacific area around Quepos, I sweated way to much for my comfort and could not wait to get back to the clean cool mountains. To each his own. I love the beach and the sea…for about four or five hours at a time. But for pure comfort and pura vida, give me the lush mountains of the Central Valley. I know exactly what I want and that is all I am recommending here. Everybody loves the sea and the beautiful sun rises and sunsets. Just make sure you absolutely love the heat before buying beach property.
Thanks for the info, Scott. It sounds like Central Valley prices have gone up somewhat since 2006 whenI purchased 12,000 sq mtrs for about $4 per square meter.
It is so difficult to get a handle on fair pricing. My property is on very good asphalt road about one kilometer from a small town and about 6 kilometers from a large town west of Atenas. There are two perfectly flat large build sites and three waterfalls, two of which are about 10 metres high. There is even a bus stop in front and the view of a valley below. But it is NOT gated. It is snadwiched between two farming properties with no buildings nearby. I love the place and would not sell it for 4 times what I paid for it.
The land in my area has recently shown very high prices. I can’t understand why this would be the case considering the current economic problems everywhere. All I can figure out is that the added value to property which is contained within a gated community with other homes must be substantial….very substantial. I guess security has become quite an issue. Either that, or people are in a hold pattern with properties right now..just as was the case in South Florida a year ago.
Edited on Feb 01, 2009 11:15
The biggest factor that divides people is the economic division. The introduction of foreign held wealth into a community shouldn’t be too big of a problem as long as it doesn’t displace too many locals but there is always the danger of perception becoming the reality rather than the reverse.
I have no way of knowing if “gringo” wealth is displacing Ticos to a degree which would warrant concern. But I am watching to see if Costa Rican politics move against us. The recent push for increasing the residency requirements was a sign that this might be taking place.
Neither do I have a finger on the pulse of the average Tico. But my sense is that the Costa Rican society is still more eglatarian than many other Latin cultures. As long as that is the case, Costa Rica may avoid class war which would necessarily involve gringos on the wrong side.
The heat along the Central Pacific coast is WORSE than south florida where I have lived for the last 30 years. Winters are great in South Flotida. Summers, not so great. Be sure you can deal with humidity and extreme heat nearly all the time before deciding to spend all your time there.
I hate the cold more thanI hate heat. I would NEVER consider living anywhere where snow might fall. The perfect climate for most people is found high up in the Central Valley. If you need to see the ocean from your porch, then the price you will pay is humidity and heat…and bugs…lots of bugs. Try it out for several months or longer before buying to be sure and the compare it with mountain living. WHat’s the rush? Take your time.
